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I’ve been hearing rumblings about a diesel shortage that’s supposed to hit hard this fall, and honestly, I’m still trying to determine whether we’re looking at a full-blown crisis or just another supply hiccup.
But here’s the thing: Diesel isn’t just about pickup trucks — it’s about the trucks that bring us our food. Nearly all of them run on diesel.
If diesel supplies tighten, consumers will feel it. Higher transportation costs can quickly make groceries and nearly everything else more expensive.
My Rotisserie Chicken Inflation Index
I’ve got my own informal inflation tracker: rotisserie chickens at Whole Foods Market. A couple of months ago they were $12, then they dropped back below $10. I thought maybe we were catching a break.
Not so fast. They could be over $12 again soon if diesel costs keep climbing. It sounds trivial, but it’s the kind of real-world signal that tells me when transportation costs are starting to bite.
Crude oil is part of this picture, too. One contract was recently near $100 while the next traded closer to $95. That gap shows how quickly expectations can shift, but crude prices ultimately feed into refinery costs and what businesses and households pay for transportation fuels.
For traders who want to monitor this, heating oil futures — tracked under the symbol HO — tend to move closely with diesel prices. It’s not a trade I’m making today, but it’s on my radar as a proxy for what’s happening across the energy supply chain.
Checking With the Freight Crew
I’m planning to check in with my freight contacts on Fintwit to see what they’re saying about tender rates and rejection rates.
Those metrics can indicate whether trucking demand is heating up or cooling down — and whether they’re seeing strain tied to fuel costs.
There may also be another hit to household budgets this winter. Diesel and heating oil are closely related products, so the same pressure lifting trucking costs can make home heating more expensive. Heating oil is less common across much of the U.S., but households that depend on it could feel the squeeze directly.
If diesel supply tightens, we’re not just talking about higher prices at the pump. We’re talking about higher costs for businesses, food deliveries and winter heating — all of which can flow through to consumers fast.
I don’t have all the answers yet, but I’m watching closely. If fall brings the diesel crunch that’s being whispered about, that rotisserie chicken could be the least of our worries.
To better trading,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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